In this episode, we discuss the recent movements in the market amid ever-changing political narratives. We delve into the factors influencing valuations, including interest rates, inflation, and macroeconomic data. The conversation also covers the impact of recent policy changes—such as Trump’s fluctuating tariffs on the EU—and how they contribute to market volatility.
We examine the current state of the S&P 500, highlighting elevated multiples supported by favorable conditions like low energy prices and high profit margins. With a focus on earnings, we explore growth projections for both large-cap and small-cap companies, along with the varying economic conditions affecting different sectors.
The episode also addresses ongoing interest rate narratives and potential market outcomes based on earnings and valuation multiples. Lastly, we outline key upcoming data points and events to watch, including consumer confidence, durable goods orders, and GDP data, as well as potential policy impacts from the White House.